El Niño 2026 Watch: Latest Updates As Historic Pacific Weather Event Ignites
We know El Niño is happening. We also know there's the potential for El Niño to create the types of conditions that powerful surf loves, especially for the Pacific.
As this El Niño cycle rolls through, we'll bring you all the action and updates as we really get going. This could be the most powerful El Niño seen in more than 50-years, so keep it here for regular check ins and how it's going to impact your surf zone.
Mexico Hurricane Named, El Niño Swell On The Way -- July 23, 2026
It's happening. A long period swell courtesy of Hurricane Fausto is on its way to Hawaii and Mexico, which could set off everyone's favourite sand-bottomed juggernaut wave at Puerto Escondido. Although the sixth named storm, Fausto has formed under strong El Niño conditions.
El Niño reduces wind shear in the Eastern Pacific, creating a favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes to form and intensify, which is exactly what has happened with Fausto.
The hurricane is on a westwards path heading away from the mainland, but the swell it is producing could be great for Mexipipe. After that, Fausto could make its way towards Hawaii -- with some decent surf for east-facing surf spots, as the forecast looks at the moment. Stay tuned, we'll drop imagery in here as it happens.
Mexico-Based Pacific Disturbance -- July 17, 2026
Tropical Storm Elida has formed up off the coast of Mexico, the first storm formed under El Nino conditions. There's currently no danger to land, but its formation could end up sending rifling swell to the likes of Puerto Escondido and beyond. Keep an eye out for updates as they happen.
NOAA: El Nino to Strengthen – July 13, 2026
In a document published on July 13, NOAA confirmed that El Niño conditions are now present in the Pacific. This means; we're in for a bit of a wild winter. According to the document: “Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
“The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.” So not just this year, but El Niño's going to be in effect until at least the first part of next year too.
El Niño vs La Niña: What's The Difference? -- July 6, 2026
El Niño and La Niña are two different phases of the warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean. This pendulum swing between temperatures has polarizing effects on surf zones across the globe, depending on which phase the ocean is in.
El Niño is when a pool of warm water heats up in the Pacific Ocean, and La Niña is when the ocean is notably cooler than the average temperature. This is called the ENSO cycle (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) and is a climate phenomenon specifically in the Pacific Ocean.
During La Niña events the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean strengthen. These winds push warm water towards the western fringe of the Pacific and allows for colder water to rise in the eastern Pacific – which means atmospheric circulation goes around the other way. Basically, the cooling and warming of the Pacific and the differences in surf that comes with them.
Where To Surf During El Niño? -- July 1, 2026
El Niño has been responsible for some remarkable moments in surfing, it’s the reason why, when it’s on the cards, we all perk up a little. With El Niño confirmed for this year, and to be one of the strongest of the past century, we took a peep at 50 years of ENSO cycles to make sense of who will win when El Niño bears down.
Mostly, the Pacific is going to see the most returns when El Niño begins spinning up. California could win big, with Hawaii a close dual-winner too. South America and Mexico could also see some super sessions this El Niño season, especially with Puerto Escondido ready to get going. We'll keep you posted when each session is about to go down.
