Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

As we do each year, PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2026-27 season, though in a slightly different format than before.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up are the Lightning.

2026-27

Upper Limit: $104MM
Current Cap Charge: $100,771,666
Cap Space: $3,228,334
Potential Bonuses: $1,027,500 (most unlikely to be reached)
Dead Cap: None

Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Conor Geekie ($886,666 + $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses), F Gage Goncalves ($1.2MM), F Dominic James ($910K + $27.5K in GP bonuses), D Emil Martinsen Lilleberg ($850K)

Goncalves has been a slower developer but he has now established himself as a full-time player on Tampa Bay’s roster.  He’s a solid secondary scorer from a bottom-six slot in the lineup and is arbitration-eligible.  Tampa Bay will need to keep his roster slot somewhat cheap so a short-term pact around double his current price might be as high as they can afford.

James had a strong rookie season and, as long as he stays healthy, he should reach his bonuses this season.  If he plays a similar role this year, he could jump to around $2.5MM on a short-term pact.  Geekie feels likely to get another shot at making the roster after spending most of last year in the minors.  Barring a huge role change, his bonuses are unlikely while he’s a viable candidate to be bridged as well.  If he can play a regular role this year, he might be able to double his current price.

Lilleberg is a capable third-pairing defender and will have arbitration eligibility next summer while being a year away from UFA eligibility.  A short-term pact that buys a year or two of control should be doable for the Lightning, as long as the price is in the $2MM to $2.5MM per season range.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Charle-Edouard D’Astous ($875K), F Zemgus Girgensons ($925K), F Pontus Holmberg ($1.55MM), G Jonas Johansson ($1.25MM), F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM)

The last few months of contracts have been great news for Kucherov’s camp.  Viewed as a potential candidate to sign a long-term pact around what he’s making now (thereby giving a small discount), it certainly feels like that has changed.  While Kucherov may indeed sign for less than true market value, his market value has increased sharply based on recent comparables.  His market value might approach the $15MM mark on a long-term pact (one that would run until he’s close to 40) so a discount on that now might be $14MM or so, not something around his current deal.  GM Julien BriseBois has been known to hold firm on his number but with how the market has moved, it feels like Tampa Bay’s number for their top player is going to need to move as well.

Holmberg had a decent first season in Tampa Bay’s bottom six, though he was primarily used on the wing.  The fact that he can play center should still boost his market next summer given the demand for middlemen.  Accordingly, he could add $1MM or so on a short-term deal for his next contract.  Girgensons rebounded after a tough first season with the Lightning but still, in an ideal situation, he’s no more than a fourth-line center at this stage of his career.  Tampa Bay will need to keep this salary slot close to the minimum so while he could get more elsewhere, he’ll have to settle for a much more modest raise if he wants to stay.

D’Astous had an impressive first season in Tampa Bay and certainly left money on the table in the long run when he accepted this one-way extension just above the minimum salary.  If this season is anything like last year, he could plausibly jump past $4MM per season, likely pricing himself out of what they’ll be able to afford in the process.

Johansson has been Tampa Bay’s backup the last three seasons in large part because they can’t afford anyone making much more within their salary structure.  He looks like the third option now and if he makes it through waivers, all but $25K would come off their books.  Johansson could still secure another one-way deal given the demand for decent third goalies but he’ll have to take a small pay cut to do so.

2027-28

Projected Upper Limit: $113.5MM
Current Cap Charge: $82.825MM (14 players signed)
Cap Space: $30.675MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None

Obviously, their cap space number is going to be much lower come July.  Kucherov alone could take up around half of that.  After bridging their RFAs, there won’t be much left to spend on any remaining roster spots.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): G Dennis Hildeby ($841,667)

Hildeby was acquired back in July from Toronto and is expected to be the backup goalie moving forward.  His NHL track record is rather limited and he’s not expected to face a heavy workload.  If he can be a quality backup, he could push for more than $2MM per season on his next deal, especially with arbitration eligibility.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): D John Carlson ($8.5MM), G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5MM)

Carlson was Tampa Bay’s big addition in free agency, replacing Darren Raddysh.  Given that he’s near the end of his career, he’s going to be a shorter-term pickup.  Assuming his playing dips by the end of this contract, he could be going year-to-year after this deal but the price tag could stay in this range.  Notably, he will be eligible for performance bonuses if he inks a one-year agreement next time.

Vasilevskiy will be entering his age-34 season on his next deal.  That may make it difficult to surpass Igor Shesterkin’s price tag (a little over $11.5MM, signed entering his age-30 year), even with a higher Upper Limit.  Vasilevskiy could still get a small raise overall but they may prefer to offer close to a max-term seven-year deal to try to get the AAV lowered relative to market value a little as well.

2028-29

Forecasted Upper Limit: $123MM
Current Cap Charge: $63,983,333 (11 players signed)
Cap Space: $59,016,667
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None

If Tampa Bay wants to bring both veterans back, they should be able to do so and still afford a small raise given the expected cap increase.  But that, coupled with a raise for Hildeby, might only leave them with a few million left to spend.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Victor Hedman ($8MM), D Ryan McDonagh ($4.1MM)

Hedman has been a number one defender for quite some time but that’s bound to change as he starts to get older.  He’ll be 38 when his next contract begins and ideally on the second pairing.  That said, the way the market is moving, he could plausibly still land around this price point on a short-term pact to play in that role.  Like Carlson, a one-year agreement would make him eligible for bonuses and a bit more cap flexibility if needed.  McDonagh will be 40 when this deal wraps up.  If he still is intent on playing at that point, he’d be going year-to-year at likely a considerably lower price tag as by then, he’ll probably be a third-pairing veteran.

2029-30

Forecasted Upper Limit: $133.5MM (8.5% increase)
Current Cap Charge: $51,883,334 (9 players signed)
Cap Space: $81,616,666
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None

As things stand, the 2029 summer could see Tampa Bay get a bit more flexibility even after Hedman re-signs.  That said, if they bridge some of the upcoming RFA class, those players will need raises at this time as well.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Ilya Mikheyev ($3.85MM), F Brayden Point ($9.5MM)

Point will be 34 when his deal expires and should still be at least a second-line center, at a minimum.  (Given Tampa Bay’s depth down the middle, he could still be their top-liner.)  With the demand at that position, he should be in line for a fair-sized raise (forecasting that his production will drop over the course of the agreement) on a long-term deal.  Mikheyev was brought over in free agency this summer and projects to fill a middle-six role.  He’ll be entering his age-36 year on his next contract so he may be looking a shorter-term pact.  If he’s more of a full-time bottom-six piece by then, a raise of consequence might be unlikely.Read more